Dear all, in the not so distant past (2011) two of my compatriots Luc Bonneux and Wim Van Damme published a remarkably brave article in the WHO Bulletin. Regrettably, they remained silent during the recent C-plandemic. In 2011 they wrote: "Health is more than influenza
Luc Bonneux & Wim Van Damme
The repeated pandemic health scares caused by an avian
H5N1 and a new A(H1N1) human influenza virus are part
of the culture of fear.1–3 Worst-case thinking replaced balanced
risk assessment. Worst-case thinking is motivated by
the belief that the danger we face is so overwhelmingly catastrophic
that we must act immediately. Rather than wait for
information, we need a pre-emptive strike. But if resources
buy lives, wasting resources wastes lives. The precautionary
stocking of largely useless antivirals and the irrational vaccination
policies against an unusually benign H1N1 virus wasted
many billions of euros and eroded the trust of the public in
health officials.4–6 The pandemic policy was never informed
by evidence, but by fear of worst-case scenarios.
In both pandemics of fear, the exaggerated claims of a
severe public health threat stemmed primarily from disease
advocacy by influenza experts. In the highly competitive
market of health governance, the struggle for attention, buda
Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, 615 N Wolfe Street (Room E7036), Baltimore, MD, 21205, United States of America (e-mail: dbarnett@jhsph.edu).
b Netherlands Interdisciplinary Demographic Institute, Postbus 11650, The Hague 2502 AR, Netherlands (e-mail: bonneux@nidi.nl).
c Institute of Tropical Medicine, Antwerp, Belgium.
540 Bull World Health Organ 2011;89:539–540 | doi:10.2471/BLT.11.089086
Round table
Definition of pandemic influenza Discussion
gets and grants is fierce. The pharmaceutical industry and the
media only reacted to this welcome boon. We therefore need
fewer, not more “pandemic preparedness” plans or definitions.
Vertical influenza planning in the face of speculative catastrophes
is a recipe for repeated waste of resources and health
scares, induced by influenza experts with vested interests in
exaggeration. There is no reason for expecting any upcoming
pandemic to be worse than the mild ones of 1957 or 1968,7
no reason for striking pre-emptively, no reason for believing
that a proportional and balanced response would risk lives.
The opposite of pre-emptive strikes against worst-case
scenarios are adaptive strategies that respond to emerging
diseases of any nature based on the evidence of observed
virulence and the effectiveness of control measures. This
requires more generic capacity for disease surveillance, problem
identification, risk assessment, risk communication and
health-care response.1 Such strengthened general capacity
can respond to all health emergencies, not just influenza.
Resources are scarce and need to be allocated to many competing
priorities. Scientific advice on resource allocation is
best handled by generalists with a comprehensive view on
health. Disease experts wish to capture public attention and
sway resource allocation decisions in favour of the disease
of their interest. We referred previously to the principles
of guidance on health by the British National Institute for
Health and Clinical Excellence (NICE),2 cited as “We make
independent decisions in an open, transparent way, based on
the best available evidence and including input from experts
and interested parties.”8 Support from disease experts is crucial
in delivering opinion, scholarly advice and evidence to a
team of independent general scientists. But this team should
independently propose decisions to policy-makers and be held
accountable for them.
The key to responsible policy-making is not bureaucracy
but accountability and independence from interest groups.
Decisions must be based on adaptive responses to emerging
problems, not on definitions. WHO should learn to be
NICE: accountable for reasonableness in a process of openness,
transparency and dialogue with all the stakeholders, and
Subject: Wisdom vs. academics.
Dear all, in the not so distant past (2011) two of my compatriots Luc Bonneux and Wim Van Damme published a remarkably brave article in the WHO Bulletin. Regrettably, they remained silent during the recent C-plandemic. In 2011 they wrote: "Health is more than influenza
Luc Bonneux & Wim Van Damme
The repeated pandemic health scares caused by an avian
H5N1 and a new A(H1N1) human influenza virus are part
of the culture of fear.1–3 Worst-case thinking replaced balanced
risk assessment. Worst-case thinking is motivated by
the belief that the danger we face is so overwhelmingly catastrophic
that we must act immediately. Rather than wait for
information, we need a pre-emptive strike. But if resources
buy lives, wasting resources wastes lives. The precautionary
stocking of largely useless antivirals and the irrational vaccination
policies against an unusually benign H1N1 virus wasted
many billions of euros and eroded the trust of the public in
health officials.4–6 The pandemic policy was never informed
by evidence, but by fear of worst-case scenarios.
In both pandemics of fear, the exaggerated claims of a
severe public health threat stemmed primarily from disease
advocacy by influenza experts. In the highly competitive
market of health governance, the struggle for attention, buda
Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, 615 N Wolfe Street (Room E7036), Baltimore, MD, 21205, United States of America (e-mail: dbarnett@jhsph.edu).
b Netherlands Interdisciplinary Demographic Institute, Postbus 11650, The Hague 2502 AR, Netherlands (e-mail: bonneux@nidi.nl).
c Institute of Tropical Medicine, Antwerp, Belgium.
540 Bull World Health Organ 2011;89:539–540 | doi:10.2471/BLT.11.089086
Round table
Definition of pandemic influenza Discussion
gets and grants is fierce. The pharmaceutical industry and the
media only reacted to this welcome boon. We therefore need
fewer, not more “pandemic preparedness” plans or definitions.
Vertical influenza planning in the face of speculative catastrophes
is a recipe for repeated waste of resources and health
scares, induced by influenza experts with vested interests in
exaggeration. There is no reason for expecting any upcoming
pandemic to be worse than the mild ones of 1957 or 1968,7
no reason for striking pre-emptively, no reason for believing
that a proportional and balanced response would risk lives.
The opposite of pre-emptive strikes against worst-case
scenarios are adaptive strategies that respond to emerging
diseases of any nature based on the evidence of observed
virulence and the effectiveness of control measures. This
requires more generic capacity for disease surveillance, problem
identification, risk assessment, risk communication and
health-care response.1 Such strengthened general capacity
can respond to all health emergencies, not just influenza.
Resources are scarce and need to be allocated to many competing
priorities. Scientific advice on resource allocation is
best handled by generalists with a comprehensive view on
health. Disease experts wish to capture public attention and
sway resource allocation decisions in favour of the disease
of their interest. We referred previously to the principles
of guidance on health by the British National Institute for
Health and Clinical Excellence (NICE),2 cited as “We make
independent decisions in an open, transparent way, based on
the best available evidence and including input from experts
and interested parties.”8 Support from disease experts is crucial
in delivering opinion, scholarly advice and evidence to a
team of independent general scientists. But this team should
independently propose decisions to policy-makers and be held
accountable for them.
The key to responsible policy-making is not bureaucracy
but accountability and independence from interest groups.
Decisions must be based on adaptive responses to emerging
problems, not on definitions. WHO should learn to be
NICE: accountable for reasonableness in a process of openness,
transparency and dialogue with all the stakeholders, and
particularly the public."
https://apps.who.int/iris/handle/10665/270944