The Agony of Avdiivka
The End of the Citadel
On the face of it one shouldn’t have any sympathy with the defenders of Avdiivka. After all: they’re directly responsible for the attacks upon the civilian population of Donetsk. Yet, it’s difficult not to feel for the Ukrainians, who’ve fought steadfastly for two years without respite and who are now utterly exhausted and doubtlessly deeply demoralised. They’re currently faced with the existential problem of whether to surrender or flee. Neither prospect, especially in deep winter, is particularly inviting.
One can readily imagine that sinking feeling as one finds out that the enemy has broken in behind one. One can also empathise if one knows that the Ukrainians, as so often in the past, have not only been used and abused but also neglected and abandoned by their officers. And worst of all: that gnawing doubt about the high command, which can’t easily be assuaged. Why weren’t they evacuated earlier, when their chances of escape were good? Why did the command wait so long before abandoning them to their unhappy fate? Why wait until the cancerous growth of the enemy advance consumed and absorbed half the city? Was Zelenksky to blame? Was the fear of Avdiivka falling just at the time of Putin’s election campaign decisive? Did political or propaganda considerations trump all others? Was Zelensky’s desire to rid himself of Valerii Zaluzhnyi paramount? Did the weakening of Avdiivka give him the opportunity to dispense with the services of his troublesome general? After all, Oleksandr Syrskyi, the new commander-in-chief, tried desperately to send reinforcements to strengthen the stronghold but, as all too frequently, it was a case of “too little, too late”.
From the Russian perspective the fight has been long and hard. When the current offensive commenced a large number of Russian armoured vehicles attacked from a whole variety of different directions, seeking the weak points in the Ukrainian defences. They were nearly all hit by precise Ukrainian artillery or drones. Yet the Russians persisted, pushing forward in the north until they’d secured the “slag heap” and the railway line before trying to take the strategically vital villages beyond it; yet the Ukrainian defense proved too fierce.
It was only when the Russians employed a disused underground pipe dating from Soviet times that they secured a daring break-through in the south. One can imagine how confounded the Ukrainians must have been: where on earth had the Russians come from? How had they managed to penetrate so far behind Ukrainian lines? The psychological shock must have been akin to that felt by the Trojans upon the unwelcome and surprising appearance of the Greeks.
The fact that the Russians had total air superiority also helped of course and they were able to bomb the Ukrainians from the air with devastating effect. How miserable to be utterly defenseless!
The Ukrainians threw their reserves to the south but in doing so they exposed their centre, which was poorly fortified. Out of laziness or arrogance the Ukrainian high command had elected not to fortify Avdiivka in its entirety, relying instead on those strong fortifications, which had been built up in the course of seven years. This proved a fatal error.
What is clear is that the Russians have a superiority in men and material and that the Ukrainians have too long relied solely upon the valiance of their soldiers. Under certain circumstances heroism is simply not enough. After Mariupol and Bakhmut, Avdiivka has finally fallen.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xrTg__08WME&ab_channel=HistoryLegends
https://simplicius76.substack.com/p/sitrep-21824-avdeevka-liberated?utm_source=post-email-title&publication_id=1351274&post_id=141716122&utm_campaign=email-post-title&isFreemail=true&r=183zor&utm_medium=email