Defeat in Gaza
The predicted and predictable defeat of the IDF in Gaza is at hand: the IDF is reported to be evacuating Gaza City (though it continues to fight in other parts of the Gaza Strip). It’s impossible to say just how high its losses have been but it’s a safe assumption that the figure quoted by Col McGregor of 3.7k KIA is likely to be accurate. None of its stated objectives have been attained.
What’s remarkable is not just how brutal but also how short-sighted and foolish Israeli tactics have been (there goes yet another Jeffrey Epstein Gene Theory down the tubes). The Israelis should have learned the lesson of Jenin (it’s unwise to use reservists in an urban environment) and the one from Lebanon (armour unsupported by either air support or infantry is vulnerable to attack); even in 1982 the IDF was still aware of how dangerous an urban environment can prove for armour.
This time around the IDF seems to have been oblivious of the threat. Likewise, its infantry could be seen in video after video failing to seek adequate cover or failing to keep both well clear of windows and of each other. It’s hardly surprising, given the sloppiness of the attacks, that so many (a fifth of all casualties) have been victims of friendly fire. Israelis could be seen throwing grenades which simply blinded them, running in front of their own fire, or shooting all their ammunition, leaving them vulnerable to attack.
All the efforts of dissecting Derrida, Foucault and the French Post Structuralists seem to have been to no avail. The IDF must learn to get back to basics and study how its model (the Wehrmacht) actually operated during its famous Blitzkriegs. It must learn the importance of combat engineers, coordinating air support with its ground operations (the Wehrmacht didn’t have the benefit of drones!) and employing Panzer grenadiers to support its armour.
Not only does the IDF seem to have ignored the lessons of history but also those of contemporary warfare in the Ukraine, where drones have been used with ever-increasing efficiency. The Israelis, who were notorious for killing civilians with drones in 2014, seem to have neglected this particular art, in which they’d once excelled.
What must be mentioned is the extraordinary prowess of the Palestinian resistance, with which the Israelis clearly hadn’t reckoned (in much the same way that the Ukrainians kept underestimating the Russians until it was much too late).
The Israelis have also failed to learn the lessons from their own (seventy-year long) direct experience of Gaza, where committing brutal crimes against humanity have always generated support for the resistance. The greatest foes to “terrorists”, by contrast, have always been prosperity, informers and a good intelligence network.
The Israelis and Americans have now switched to terror attacks and seem to be trying to escalate the conflict by attacking Iran directly. Whether they actually succeed in provoking the Iranians however is another matter entirely. It’s also highly questionable whether the West will succeed in subduing Yemen (it’s curious that those who got so upset about the Russian SMO ignored the Western/Saudi genocide there, which has claimed over three quarters of a million lives).
The murder of Saleh al-Arouri has revealed for all to see that the main objective of the Israelis hasn’t been the release of their hostages (the vast majority of hostages remain Palestinians languishing in Israeli jails) but rather their killing and the killing of those (such as Saleh al-Arouri) who have secured their release.
Likewise, the bombing of the memorial for General Qassem Soleimani shows the vindictiveness of the Israelis and the Americans (Trump still needs to be charged with the murder of Soleimani). Neither have forgiven Soleimani for defeating their proxy: ISIS (Israeli Secret Intelligence Service) in Syria. Nor have they forgotten or forgiven the Russians for thwarting them there. Indeed, the war in the Ukraine, which started in 2014, must be seen as payback for Syria in 2012. Essentially the Ukrainian war must be seen as a repeat of the Crimean War of 1853-1856, which, ironically, was sparked by a dispute over Christian rights in Palestine. Now the rights of Christians in Palestine are simply being trampled on and some of the oldest churches on the planet destroyed.
I listened to some speakers in the International Court today, so I hope they will vote for cessation of hostilities. Whether Israel will comply is one thing, the other is what the rest will do to enforce it. My cynical side thinks they will continue and the escalation will grow much wider, and maybe that's what they want, cause crisis after crisis to usher in the build back better agenda. I hope I'm wrong. I was wrong on Putin's SMO launch.